Five years of the tape

Pullback · 5–10%

Sep 2021 — Oct 2021 · S&P 500

The only real bruise of 2021. China property stress and the Fed’s first honest taper talk knocked about 5% off the S&P — a classic pullback, not a regime change.

Bear market · 20–30%

Jan 3, 2022 — Oct 12, 2022 · S&P 500

Peak 4,796 to the October 12 close of 3,577. Inflation, the fastest hiking cycle in decades, and the Ukraine war. Nasdaq was worse — about −36% from its November 2021 high.

Bear crash · 30%+

Nov 19, 2021 — Dec 2022 / Oct 2022 low · NASDAQ

Same cycle as the S&P bear, but the growth tape broke 30%. Duration-sensitive megacaps and unprofitable tech were the wreckage.

Pullback · 5–10%

Feb 2023 — Mar 13, 2023 · S&P 500

Silicon Valley Bank, Signature, and Credit Suisse. The S&P lost high-single digits; regionals and some small-caps saw a local bear.

Correction · 10–20%

Jul 31, 2023 — Oct 27, 2023 · S&P 500

First official S&P correction since 2022. The 10-year yield tagged 5%. The Fed would not cut. It was over the next session.

Pullback · 5–10%

Jul 16, 2024 — Aug 5, 2024 · S&P 500

Bank of Japan hike plus a soft U.S. jobs print. Japan crashed more than 10% in a day. The S&P’s 2024 max drawdown was about −8.5%.

Correction · 10–20%

Feb 2025 ATH — Mar 13, 2025 · S&P 500

Tariff talk, growth scares, and a 17-month gap since the last −10%. Mid-March closed the S&P just over 10% off the high — then Liberation Day made it worse.

Bear market · 20–30%

Feb 2025 ATH — Apr 7, 2025 · S&P 500

April 2 tariffs, China retaliation, then the second-fastest trip into a bear on record. S&P about −21% by April 7. Nasdaq and the Russell tagged bear first.

Pullback · 5–10%

Feb 27, 2026 — Mar 30, 2026 · S&P 500

Energy spike and geopolitics. The S&P lost about 8% and stopped short of a correction. By August it was 22% above that March 30 low.

Run · 10–20%

Oct 12, 2022 — Dec 2022 · S&P 500

November 10, 2022: cooler CPI, S&P +5.5% in a day. That session is still one of the largest point gains on the board. The bear’s back was broken.

Bull market · 20–30%

Oct 12, 2022 — Jun 8, 2023 · S&P 500

Close above 4,292.44 on June 8, 2023 — 20% off the October low. That is the textbook end of the 2022 bear.

Melt-up · 30%+

Oct 2022 low — Dec 2023 · S&P 500

From the bear low through 2023 the S&P ran about a third. Magnificent Seven did most of the work. Soft landing plus Nvidia.

Bull market · 20–30%

Oct 27, 2023 — Dec 2024 · S&P 500

No correction in 2024. The S&P’s worst bruise was the August yen scare (−8.5%). The year closed about +25%. November 6 added +2.5% in a day.

Bounce · 5–10%

Apr 8, 2025 — Apr 9, 2025 · S&P 500

Largest S&P point gain ever: +474 points, +9.52% on April 9. The tape decided the tariff schedule might not stick.

Bull market · 20–30%

Apr 7, 2025 — Jun 27, 2025 · S&P 500

Less than three months from the April low to a new all-time high. Second-fastest recovery in 75 years after 1982. The year still finished about +18%.

Bull market · 20–30%

Mar 30, 2026 — Aug 2026 · S&P 500

Off the Iran low the S&P was ~22% higher by mid-August, at a fresh high, with every sector green on the year. AI capex plus a still-dovish Fed.